Covid-19
Predictions
Our aim is to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We employ an empirical model, verified with the evolution of the number of confirmed cases in previous countries where the epidemic is close to conclude. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends.
Mobility
Data about mobility and confinement degree provided by Facebook (Data for Good) allow for a tracking of people’s behaviour from the movement perspective. Facebook Data for Good(FB) tracks people remaining at home (FB short walk index) and also the number of different places that not-confined people visit compared with a pre-curfew baseline (FB mobility index). The analysis of this data provides a variable of interest for risk evaluation. An increase in mobility, or a decrease in confinement degree, entails an increase in social interactions that could eventually facilitate the spreading of a new outbreak (i.e., a secondary wave). Then, it is important to ensure a gradual increase in mobility that allows for a careful evaluation of resulting spreading rate. If a significant and persistent increase in spreading rate is observed, control measures should be hardened again in the affected regions or areas. We have evaluated how mobility and confinement degree has evolved in different countries and European regions.
Risk assessments
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